03 December 2021
Gallatin, Tennessee
Mind-dump, sans edit

The table is set. Millions of plates will be empty by this time next year. We are entering a global famine. By this time two years from now, in 2023, we likely will be in a global famine that never has occurred before. At this time, we certainly are heading that direction.

We've seen World Wars. And Global Pandemic.

Yet there never has been, to my knowledge, global famine during recorded history.

Famine usually is localized. Such as China starving tens of millions of their own people.

Severe famine, unlike wars which can last for generations, normally lasts only a couple of years or so. Sometimes longer, but not for entire generations.

Severe famine has a magical way quickly reaching equilibrium by reducing the number of mouths to feed. Or perhaps the drought ends, the locusts or blight vanishes, or the hungry people invade someone else's land, etc. You don't see forty year famines or forty year forest fires.

As you study more famines patterns emerge.

In the books on famine that I have read -- no more than fifteen -- there always is enough food. That is globally speaking there is enough food. Something gets between the food and the mouths. Often this is war. The shortages are local, not global.

Weaponized famine also is common.

We are seeing a clear pattern. This pandemic has been and is being weaponized. And this pandemic is being leveraged into a weaponized famine.

And so, what I am seeing and sensing: For the first time in human history we likely will experience a global food shortage. Not just a local shortage that leaves maybe a million reduced to skeletons, but potentially tens or hundreds of millions as famine increases stresses and naturally leads to wars, which recursively curls back to more pandemic and famine.

We are on the front edge of famine. Just as I warned many times in January/February 2020 that we appeared to be going into pandemic -- which pandemic so far is minor on the historical scale -- I warned during those same months that pandemic has a magical way of fading into famine and war: PanFaWar.

The symptoms are clear. We are moving into Global Famine on a scale never before seen. A sort of World War Famine. A "Great Famine."

And sense we never have seen a Great Famine, I cannot mine for clues in crispy old books. All the famines I have studied were localized. I don't know what to expect. There is no historical precedent.

Will it happen? My guess at this time is yes. I will say 80% chance we will go into some form of Global Famine before 2024. We are moving that direction.

There still is time to prepare. And remember -- most famines only go hard for a year or two, but then most famines are not global. Prepare for at least two hard years and that gives you time to think.

And remember that a lot of people prepare for these times by planning to steal from the prepared.

https://www.producer.com/crops/nitrogen-fertilizer-shortage-expected-to-drive-down-yields-worldwide/